The bear is back.
The S&P 500 on Monday confirmed what many investors have been saying for months: The large-cap benchmark is in the grips of a bear market.
Stocks suffered sharp losses Monday after major benchmarks saw their worst week since January. Much of the weakness was attributed to the Friday reading of the May consumer-price index, which surged to 8.6% year-over-year — a 40-year high. Investors fear the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates even more aggressively than already expected, risking recession in their effort to tame inflation.
The S&P 500 SPX, -3.88% fell 151.23 points, or 3.9%, to end at 3,749.63, down 21.8% from its Jan. 3 record close and surpassing the 20% pullback threshold traditionally used to define a bear market.
The S&P 500 briefly traded below the bear-market threshold in May, but didn’t close below it. Stocks subsequently bounced, but the rebound has since given way as recession fears have increased.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.79% finished with a loss of 876.05 points, or 2.8%, to finish at 30,516.74, after dropping more than 1,000 points at its session low. A close below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, -4.68%, which slumped into a bear market earlier this year, dropped 4.7% on Monday, leaving it nearly 33% below its Nov. 19, 2021, record close.
To be sure, many investors and analysts see a 20% pullback as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have long been behaving in bearlike fashion.
Note that the S&P 500’s finish on Monday means the start of the bear market is backdated the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market is declared over once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.
How have stocks behaved once a bear market has been confirmed? History shows that usually more pain was in store.
There have been 17 bear — or near-bear— markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a May note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has fallen further once a bear market begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).
Beyond the averages, there’s a lot of variability in the length and depth of past bear markets. The steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.