This is the second of two Deep Dive articles screening EV-related stocks. The first screen was based on analysts’ ratings and consensus price targets. This screen is based on projected sales growth from 2023 through 2025.
Following a dismal 2022, this year has been remarkable for stocks of electric-vehicle manufacturers, for those in other industries tied to it, and for those developing autonomous cars.
With such remarkable performance this year, including a doubling of shares for Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.86% and a 34% increase for Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN, -7.02%, along with an increase in its production estimate for 2023 on Thursday, it is a good time to look as far ahead as we can at industry growth projections from elevated 2023 baselines.
For this next screen, we again started with three ETFs that track the EV/autonomous space and related industries:
- The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF DRIV DRIV has $842 million in assets under management and holds 75 stocks. It tracks an index of companies around the world that are involved with the development and manufacture of autonomous-driving systems and/or EVs. The companies’ primary stock listings need to be developed markets, South Korea or Taiwan, which means it has relatively low exposure to companies in China, which make up 4% of the portfolio. The fund is 57% concentrated in U.S. stocks, with 11% in Japan and 4.5% in Canada.
- The $458 million iShares Self-Driving EV & Tech ETF IDRV IDRV holds 53 stocks to track an index that weights companies around the world by their involvement in the autonomous or electric-vehicle industries. U.S. companies make up 37% of the portfolio, while companies in China make up 16% and those in South Korea have a 12% weight.
- The $185 million KraneShares Electric Vehicle and Future Mobility Index ETF KARS holds shares of 61 companies making up an index of companies involved with EV development and manufacturing. It also has exposure to the lithium and copper mining industry, as well as fuel-cell technology.
Together, the three funds hold shares of 144 companies. For a screen based on expected sales growth, we narrowed the list to 117 companies that are each covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and for which consensus sales estimates are available for the next two years.
We looked at calendar-year consensus estimates through 2025 to see which companies were expected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue from a 2023 baseline. We used calendar-year estimates because some companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar. This screen incorporates a significant upward move for some companies’ 2023 estimates.
From the group of 117 companies, these 20 are expected to show the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2023 through 2025. The consensus sales estimates for non-U.S. companies are in millions of U.S. dollars, as converted by FactSet.
|Company||Ticker||Country||Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2025||Estimated sales – 2023||Estimated sales – 2024||Estimated sales – 2025||Held by|
|Innoviz Technologies Ltd.||INVZ, -5.43%||Israel||347.1%||$16||$80||$318||DRIV, IDRV|
|Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A||LAZR, -4.69%||U.S.||168.9%||$86||$274||$621||DRIV, IDRV|
|Nikola Corp.||NKLA, -9.95%||U.S.||163.8%||$124||$369||$862||DRIV, IDRV|
|Lucid Group Inc.||LCID, -3.27%||U.S.||140.4%||$818||$2,024||$4,726||DRIV, IDRV, KARS|
|Fisker Inc. Class A||FSR, -1.77%||U.S.||117.1%||$1,085||$3,233||$5,115||IDRV, KARS|
|Chunbo Co. Ltd.||278280, +5.73%||South Korea||81.7%||$214||$481||$708||IDRV|
|Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A||PSNY, -2.06%||Sweden||78.3%||$3,109||$5,324||$9,878||IDRV|
|EVgo Inc. Class A||EVGO, -2.44%||U.S.||73.9%||$138||$256||$416||IDRV|
|Ballard Power Systems Inc.||BLDP, +2.98%||Canada||63.7%||$88||$140||$235||DRIV|
|Piedmont Lithium Inc.||PLL, -1.36%||U.S.||63.5%||$212||$439||$568||DRIV|
|Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A||RIVN, -7.02%||U.S.||62.1%||$4,282||$7,060||$11,247||IDRV, KARS|
|Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd.||361610, -0.10%||South Korea||58.0%||$555||$911||$1,385||IDRV, KARS|
|Lithium Americas Corp.||LAC, +0.64%||Canada||57.6%||$298||$604||$741||KARS|
|Plug Power Inc.||PLUG, -1.65%||U.S.||52.1%||$1,278||$1,987||$2,957||DRIV, KARS|
|indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A||INDI, -1.94%||U.S.||50.3%||$250||$402||$565||DRIV|
|XPeng Inc. ADR Class A||XPEV, -5.02%||China||49.3%||$4,496||$7,630||$10,025||DRIV, KARS, IDRV|
|Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.||LYC, -0.29%||Australia||44.5%||$544||$777||$1,137||KARS|
|Li Auto Inc. Class A||2015, -5.52%||China||42.9%||$15,569||$23,687||$31,790||IDRV, KARS|
|ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A||CHPT, -0.81%||U.S.||42.6%||$660||$966||$1,341||IDRV, KARS|
|L & F Co. Ltd.||066970, +4.18%||South Korea||42.3%||$4,518||$6,703||$9,146||KARS|
Click on the tickers for more about each company, including business profiles.
You can see that the 2023 consensus revenue estimate sets a low baseline for Innoviz Technologies Ltd. INVZ, which tops the list. This underlines the case for doing a lot of research on your own, to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term business prospects before buying an individual stock. A company at an early stage that is expected to grow its sales quickly may also be expected to lose money over the next few years.
Leaving the companies in the same order, here’s a summary of opinion among analysts polled by FactSet. Share prices are in local currencies where the stocks are listed.
|Company||Ticker||Share “buy” ratings||Aug. 8 price||Consensus price target||Implied 12-month upside potential|
|Innoviz Technologies Ltd.||INVZ, -5.43%||83%||3.41||8.42||147%|
|Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A||LAZR, -4.69%||73%||6.71||12.50||86%|
|Nikola Corp.||NKLA, -9.95%||13%||2.21||2.70||22%|
|Lucid Group Inc.||LCID, -3.27%||42%||7.19||8.00||11%|
|Fisker Inc. Class A||FSR, -1.77%||33%||5.93||9.50||60%|
|Chunbo Co. Ltd.||278280, +5.73%||90%||162,400.00||278,000.00||71%|
|Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A||PSNY, -2.06%||50%||4.25||5.37||26%|
|EVgo Inc. Class A||EVGO, -2.44%||38%||4.94||6.93||40%|
|Ballard Power Systems Inc.||BLDP, +4.13%||13%||6.30||8.20||30%|
|Piedmont Lithium Inc.||PLL, -1.36%||100%||48.06||104.19||117%|
|Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A||RIVN, -7.02%||54%||24.80||28.19||14%|
|Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd.||361610, -0.10%||92%||96,600.00||128,043.48||33%|
|Lithium Americas Corp.||LAC, +0.64%||100%||24.98||47.23||89%|
|Plug Power Inc.||PLUG, -1.65%||67%||10.91||18.57||70%|
|Indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A||INDI, -1.94%||100%||8.24||15.67||90%|
|XPeng Inc. ADR Class A||XPEV, -5.02%||62%||17.73||14.65||-17%|
|Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.||LYC, -0.29%||77%||6.95||9.06||30%|
|Li Auto Inc. Class A||2015, -5.52%||90%||177.50||191.43||8%|
|ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A||CHPT, -0.81%||75%||7.99||15.36||92%|
|L & F Co. Ltd.||066970, +4.18%||86%||215,500.00||373,285.72||73%|