An ‘EV tipping point’ is approaching, but that’s not good news for Tesla: B. of A.


With several electric vehicles coming to the market by legacy and new auto makers soon, analysts at B. of A. Securities expect that a “tipping point” for EVs will happen this year, although higher prices would remain a constraint. The year 2022 “marks the start of commercialization for electric vehicles … with many of start-up EV automakers launching/ramping new product and many of the incumbent automakers also beginning their product launch onslaught,” the analysts said in a note Wednesday. B. of A. analysts said they expects about 1 million EVs sold in 2022, rising to about 1.8 million in 2023 and 3 million in 2024, implying EV penetration of around 6% this year, 11% in 2023, and 16% in 2024. Tesla Inc. TSLA, -3.38% EV market share could fall to 19% by 2024, from 69% in 2021. Among “incumbent” auto makers in the U.S., Ford Motor Co. F, -7.92% and General Motors Co. GM, -4.34% “appear to be the biggest share gainers in the EV market,” the analysts said, both increasing their share from mid-single digits to mid-double digits over the period. Moreover, 2022 will be characterized by the production ad sales ramp of Lucid Group Inc.’s LCID, +2.09% Air sedan and Rivian Automotive Inc.’s RIVN, -5.14% R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV, and the electric commercial van. It also could see the launch of Fisker Inc.’s FSR, -4.82% Ocean SUV, Canoo Inc. GOEV, -4.44% Lifestyle Vehicle, and Lordstown Motors Corp.’s RIDE, -2.04% Endurance pickup, the analysts said.

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